65% disapprove of the government and the business climate falls again: what worries Uruguayan businessmen?

65% of the Uruguayan businessmen disapproves of the government’s management of Yamandú Orsi and 7% approve it. In turn, the business climate deteriorated again and accumulated four consecutive measurements of fall, according to some of the results of the latest edition of the Business Expectations Survey October prepared by the consulting firm Exantewhich surveyed the opinions of some 340 business executives.

Disapproval of the government’s management increased compared to the previous measurement. In October, 65% of business owners stated that they disapprove of the management, compared to 57% registered in April. Meanwhile, 7% expressed their approval, two percentage points less than in the previous survey, while the remaining 28% neither approve nor disapprove.

When analyzing management by areas, the inflation management It obtained the most favorable rating with 71% of business owners rating it as good. Instead, the security and the education The worst evaluations were concentrated.

In macroeconomic terms, the survey reflected a view of expectations about the “relatively stable” outlook compared to the April measurement, with a reduction in pessimism about the evolution of the economy. However, the consultant pointed out that this improvement was not transferred to the business climate perceptionwhich “continues to weaken.”

The proportion of entrepreneurs who expect a deterioration of the economic situation It fell from 45% in April to 33% in October. “In the last survey, just over half considered that the economic situation is similar to that of last year and there were also a majority of those who do not expect changes for the coming months,” said Exante.

In any case, growth prospects remain moderate. On average, employers expect that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase 1% in 2026. However, 48% of executives believe growth will be less than 1% this year. For 2027 they project GDP growth of 1.3% and for the next “three or four years”, The average growth expectation is 1.5% annually, almost half of the forecast they had in 2021.

The evaluation of business climate deteriorated again. In October, 34% of business owners rated it as good or very good, while 55% considered it average and 12% evaluated it as bad or very bad. In April, negative responses had represented 9%. According to Exante, the proportion of positive reviews is at its lowest level since the beginning of 2020.

Meanwhile, expectations about the investment climate “They improved moderately, although the net balance of responses has been oscillating at markedly negative levels for two years,” said Exante. When asked about what the investment climate will be like in a year, 58% believe it will be the same, 34% worse and 8% better.

In relation to dollarexpectations were very similar to those anticipated in the previous survey, with 58% of business owners expecting that within a year, the dollar is between $41 and $43. The average response was $41.3, which represents a 3% increase compared to current levels, according to the survey.

On the other hand, the survey revealed the expectations of businessmen in relation to the inflation and found that more than 90% of executives expect it to be within the tolerance range of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), between 3% and 6%, at the end of 2026 and 2027. At the end of this year they foresee inflation, on average, of 4.6% and 4.9% at the end of next year.

For the horizon of three to four years, the 85% It also expects inflation to remain within the range. However, the responses for the medium term are concentrated to a greater extent in the upper part of the range. The average inflation expectations for that horizon are around 5%, above the BCU’s goal of 4.5%.

When comparing the general situation of their companies with that of a year ago, 51% of executives responded
which remains unchanged, 27% better and 22% worse. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, the majority (57%) do not expect significant variations either, 33% expect to be better and 10% consider that they will be worse.

Looking at 2026 sales, nearly two-thirds of companies said they are in line with budget or ahead of schedule. 36% indicated they had lower sales than expected, 41% similar and 23% higher. The sectors of industry y services “concentrate the largest proportion of companies whose sales are performing below expectations,” the report indicated.

The prospects of production e investment showed a recovery compared to previous measurements. 44% of executives expect their companies’ production to increase and 38% foresee an increase in investment.

The expectations about employmentHowever, they remain weak. Less than a fifth of employers plan to increase the number of workers in their companies over the next year, the lowest proportion since 2020, according to Exante.

Exante

Among executives of companies that do not plan to increase their workforce, 60% identified the wages high real estate as the factor that most limits hiring. The low volume of business (50%) and the incorporation of technologies that save labor (44%) were also mentioned.

The survey also asked about the productivity evolution in relation to the salary cost during the last three years. 45% of entrepreneurs responded that both variables evolved in line, 24% said they evolved somewhat below, 6% significantly below, 22% somewhat above and 3% significantly above.

The greatest lags in productivity with respect to salary costs were recorded in the sectors agricultural e industrial.

On the other hand, less than half of the businessmen positively evaluate the profitability.During the last 12 months this indicator showed a deterioration compared to previous measurements. 47% of those consulted rated it as good or very good, 41% responded that it was good and 6% that it was very good. Another 40% considered it average, while 10% evaluated it as bad and 3% as very bad.

The proportion of positive responses had been 56% in both October 2025 and April 2026. For next year, only a quarter of executives expect the profitability of their companies to increase, the lowest proportion since 2020, according to Exante.

The evaluation of the competitiveness of the companies was more favorable. About two-thirds of executives rated it positively and only 4% considered it bad or very bad. Exante pointed out that the positive assessments improved compared to April, although the agricultural and industrial sectors presented the lowest proportions of favorable responses. In both cases, however, more than half of those consulted positively evaluated the competitiveness of their companies.

Photo: MTSS.

Despite this assessment, 85% of businessmen identified at least one factor that affects competitiveness. He salary cost was the most mentioned, with 67% of the responses. They followed him tax burdenwith 39%, and the labor market rigiditieswith 34%. According to the study, mentions of the low exchange rate were less frequent than in previous measurements.

When consulting about the main challenges that companies face, 63% pointed to cost pressure59% the increase in competition and 42% the adoption of technology. Cost pressure remained the most frequently mentioned challenge.