According to data from the Foreign Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) index compiled by the University of Denver’s Pardee Institute, Russia’s share of foreign influence in Africa has expanded by more than a quarter over the past decade, rising from 2.2% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2024.
Although Russia still has less influence than Western powers, its growing ties with African countries in defence, energy and agriculture create new challenges for the U.S., alongside China’s much stronger economic presence.
China dominates trade across Africa while Russia expands its influence by over a quarter
China currently leads all external partners in foreign influence capacity across Africa with an 11% share, compared to 7% each for the United States and France.
Beijing’s economic lead is driven by bilateral trade, which reached a record $348 billion in 2025, more than 12 times Russia’s merchandise trade total.
By contrast, Russia’s commercial influence remains modest, with total annual trade hovering around $30.4 billion.
As IntelliNews revealed in its report, Russia’s, “expanding pull on the continent rests on guns, grain and reactors, not money.”
Although Russia accounts for under 1.5% of Africa’s total foreign trade, Moscow has carved out targeted strategic sectors.
Russia supplies 15% of major African arms imports, delivers 31% of the continent’s wheat imports, and accounts for 18% of its fertilizer deliveries.
In addition, Business Insider Africa reported that Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom is financing 85% of the $29 billion El Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt, while pursuing further nuclear energy contracts across West and East Africa.
The U.S. and France face shifting global alliances from Egypt to the Sahel region
The dual rise of Chinese trade dominance and Russian security integration presents complex diplomatic friction for Washington and European allies.
Historical tracking from the FBIC index shows that Western influence has diminished over recent decades; France held a 15.5% share of foreign influence capacity in Africa in 1995, but that share has dropped by more than half to 7%.
Military governments across the Sahel including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have requested French and U.S. forces to exit while establishing security arrangements with Moscow’s Africa Corps.
Simultaneously, African nations are leveraging multipolar diplomacy to expand their economic options. As reported by Business Insider Africa, H. A. Hellyer, a scholar at the Royal United Services Institute think tank explained that:
“Egypt sees itself as moving toward greater strategic autonomy,”
“It wants strong relations with Washington, but also Beijing, Moscow, and Europe“.
Source: africa.businessinsider.com
