Key Points
- Thailand cut its 2026 arrivals forecast to 33 million from 36.7 million, and its 2027 target of “at least 33 million” keeps the lower ambition in place. Arrivals are tracking at about 69,000 a day against the roughly 114,000 a day needed.
- Supply keeps coming: 167 hotel projects nationally at the end of June, including 67 in Bangkok and 44 in Phuket, plus 5,517 Phuket rooms in C9 Hotelworks’ count with about 40% due in 2027.
- Performance is splitting by market and segment. Bangkok luxury is holding up better than the wider market, while Phuket’s luxury and upscale occupancy fell to 80% from 84.1% and ADR dropped 4% to 6,820 baht.
Summary
Thailand’s government cut its 2026 international arrivals forecast to 33 million from 36.7 million and set a 2027 target of “at least 33 million,” carrying the lower ambition into next year. Arrivals reached 24.4 million between January 1 and October 17, down 4.1% year over year, and the current pace of about 69,000 a day is far below the roughly 114,000 a day needed to hit the target. Hotel developers and airlines are expanding anyway. Marriott signed seven hotels with FICO Corporation in October, Thailand had 167 hotel projects in the pipeline at the end of June, and Phuket alone has 30 hotels with 5,517 rooms coming, about 40% of them due in 2027. The exposure is uneven. Bangkok’s third-quarter RevPAR fell 5.3% from the previous quarter to 2,532 baht, but Cushman & Wakefield’s Greg Condon said luxury guests are less sensitive to financial pressure and expects new luxury openings to lift rates. Phuket’s luxury and upscale occupancy fell to 80% in the first half from 84.1%, with ADR down 4%. On the air side, LOT Polish Airlines returned to Bangkok in October and Belavia added Minsk service to Bangkok and Phuket, targeting Eastern European markets that send relatively few visitors today. Amadeus data showed forward fourth-quarter arrivals up 2.8% year over year, enough to signal improving demand but not enough to close this year’s gap.
Source: skift.com
