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Elon Musk’s SpaceX could be among the biggest losers from a successful Anthropic IPO, according to a finance professor who says the listing could draw investors away from Musk’s AI businesses.
That’s despite Anthropic reportedly accounting for more than a third of SpaceX’s revenue last quarter.
“The more vulnerable names are listed companies that compete with Anthropic for the same pool of ‘AI growth’ capital,” Cathy Zheng, associate professor of finance at Bryant University, told Benzinga exclusively.
“SpaceX, which now owns xAI and its Grok models, is the clearest example.”
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Why SpaceX Could Lose Out
Anthropic’s IPO would give investors a more direct way to bet on advanced AI models than buying SpaceX, which also operates rockets and Starlink.
Anthropic’s Claude competes with Grok, while Claude Code challenges Cursor, the coding company SpaceX acquired in August.
“That creates the possibility of stronger enthusiasm for AI alongside weaker prices for some established AI beneficiaries,” Zheng said.
“I don’t expect the megacaps to be the main casualties,” Zheng said.
Even if Anthropic raises $100 billion, that would amount to less than 1% of the combined market value of Nvidia Corp. , Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc., she noted.
“Any rotation into Anthropic is a one-time event, while their earnings power keeps compounding,” Zheng said.
Those companies could also benefit from Anthropic’s infrastructure spending. Nvidia supplies chips, while Microsoft, Amazon and Google sell cloud capacity.
“Money raised in the IPO largely flows back to them,” she said.
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Anthropic Is Also SpaceX’s Biggest Customer
SpaceX could benefit from that spending, too.
Anthropic reportedly accounted for 34.5% of SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue, roughly $5 billion. Anthropic’s IPO filing shows computing agreements with SpaceX worth up to $120.5 billion through 2029, although either company can cancel with 90 days’ notice after early 2027.
A successful IPO could help Anthropic meet those commitments, even as its listing threatens to draw investors away from SpaceX.
SpaceX finished its June IPO debut with a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion.
On Polymarket, traders give Anthropic a 28% chance of surpassing SpaceX’s June debut as 2026’s largest IPO by first-day market capitalization, with $7.4 million traded on the market.
For SpaceX shareholders, Anthropic’s success could mean billions in additional business while challenging the premium investors are willing to pay for Musk’s AI ambitions.
Image: Shutterstock
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Source: finance.yahoo.com
