This winter could be one for the record books as Super El Niño and the Polar Vortex go head-to-head. With a predicted warmer winter ahead, the Polar Vortex may break down earlier than ever, sending cold air into the U.S. in late November or December. Only time will tell if Super El Niño with its warmer-than-average winter will come out on top or if the Polar Vortex will win out.
THE TAKEAWAY
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for White Christmas in the Rockies and in New England.
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac says it makes long-range weather predictions based on a “a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology.”
- NOAA is monitoring a potential upcoming battle between cold arctic air due to a disruption in the Polar Vortex and an increase in mild Pacific air across the country due to El Niño.
While forecasters are monitoring a rapidly strengthening The Child climate pattern, with a Super El Niño expected to be declared later this year, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released some of its winter predictions and is calling for a White Christmas across the Intermountain West and the Northeast this year.
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FILE – WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES – 2024/01/21: The main street decorated with Christmas lights in winter in downtown Leavenworth in Chelan County, Eastern Washington State, USA.
((Photo by Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images))
file -Window with poinsettia in winter at Timberline Lodge. Oregon.
((Photo by: Dennis Frates/Avalon/Universal Images Group via Getty Images))
FILE – A-frame home in snowy central Idaho mountain valley in winter.
((Photo by: Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images))
FILE – The stars and clouds trail across the sky over Cameron Lake in Waterton Lakes National Park, Alberta, and Mt. Custer across the border in Glacier National Park in Montana. The sky and mountains are illuminated by a waxing crescent Moon off frame to the right, setting in the northwest.
( (Photo by: Alan Dyer/VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images))
file – YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING – MAY 21: Bison graze as snow falls in Hayden Valley on May 21, 2026 in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming.
((Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images))
FILE – Aerial view of snowy mountain range, Warm Springs Nevada, Tonopah Highway 95, Great Basin Mountain Range.
(Photo by: Visions of America/Joe Sohm/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images))
FILE – Wood cabin on a small pond in winter, reflection in the water, Wasatch Mountain Range of central Utah, United States.
((Photo by: MyLoupe/Universal Images Group via Getty Images))
file – A Christmas display off Gapter Street in Boulder captures the essence of the day of the heavy snow in Boulder.
((Photo by Cliff Grassmick/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images))
file – THE GRAND CANYON, ARIZONA, UNITED STATES – 2024/01/08: View of snow on the cliffs of The Grand Canyon taken along the southern rim of the canyon following a snow storm that left 3 or more inches of snow throughout the park and shut down roads around it.
((Photo by Adam Delgiudice/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images))
FILE – SANTA FE, NEW MEXICO – NOVEMBER 28, 2019: A woman walks her dog, a pug, in the snow in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
((Photo by Robert Alexander/Getty Images))
FILE – A pedicab tour guide, dressed in a Santa Claus costume, rides during a snowfall in Times Square on December 26, 2025, in New York City.
((Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images))
file – BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 30: Boston Red Sox mascot Wally the Green Monster wears a Santa Claus outfit as he poses for a photograph as snow falls on October 30, 2020 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.
( (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images))
FILE – 1960s TWO MEN IN ONE WHITE HORSE DRAWN OPEN SLEIGH PASSING BY COUNTRY HOUSE INN VERMONT USA
((Photo by H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty Images))
file – 1960s Man in winter red jacket dragging a pine christmas tree home through the snow and birch trees lancaster nh USA.
((Photo by H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock /Getty Images))
file – A child dressed as Santa Clause walks through the snow during Santa Sunday at Sunday River in Newry, Maine, on December 8, 2024.
(Photo by Joseph Prezioso / AFP) (Photo by JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images))
According to the Almanac, parts of 16 states are expected to have more than an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac says it makes long-range weather predictions based on a “a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology.” It also says it looks at historical weather patterns and climate data to make long-range forecasts.
The company says the first almanac was published in 1792 and contained astronomical data and long-range weather predictions.
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Additionally, the Almanac said there is a “chance of a White Christmas” across parts of the Plains, the Midwest and Appalachians, including: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina.
FILE – WILKES BARRE, PA – DECEMBER 16: A man walks his dog near an illuminated Christmas tree during heavy snowfall on December 16, 2020 in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania. Winter Storm Gail is expected to bring more than a foot of snow in parts of the Northeast.
((Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Meanwhile, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects a warmer-than-average November for much of the entire Northern Tier across the country.
This comes amid a very early-season disruption of the Polar Vortex, which usually signals the arrival of cold arctic air across parts of the Lower 48.
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Polar Vortex vs. The Child
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
However, it can take several weeks for those changes to work their way down and influence the jet stream and larger weather patterns, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Furthermore, any cold air that does sink down to the surface will also have to contend with mild Pacific air that’s being ushered across the country by the jet stream, which is being strengthened by El Niño.
Source: www.foxweather.com
