North Carolina Democrats for years courted financial support from Washington-based political groups and other out-of-state donors on the prospect that they could win high-profile federal races — only to fall short, even as Democrats won other races down the ballot.
Democrats reversed that trend on Election Day when former Gov. Roy Cooper defeated Republican Michael Whatley in the state’s U.S. Senate race by about 20 percentage points, becoming the first Democrat to win the seat since 2008. Democrats also unseated at least half of the Republicans who represent North Carolina in the U.S. House of Representatives — and could still net even more by the time all the votes are counted and, potentially, recounted. Democrats also took control of the state House for the first time since 2010.
Two years from now, though, some of the Democrats who were elected Tuesday could face uphill battles to keep the seats they just won, political analysts say.
That’s partly because North Carolina’s largest voting bloc is unaffiliated voters, many of whom can’t be relied upon to vote for either party consistently. Through October, the state had more than 3.1 million voters registered as unaffiliated, 2.34 million registered as Democrats and 2.33 million registered as Republicans.
It’s also because some Democrats eked out victories in districts that Republican legislators had drawn to favor the GOP, and political analysts say Democratic candidates are unlikely to enjoy the same tailwinds in 2028.
Midterm elections are usually referendums on the party that holds the White House. And while President Donald Trump carried the Tar Heel State in each of the three presidential races, the midterm results suggest that North Carolina Republicans will benefit from having a new presidential nominee two years from now — presumably one who might inspire higher participation among the GOP base and attract more of the state’s unaffiliated voters, who broke hard for Democrats this year. Polls conducted in October found Trump’s approval rating hovering around 35% in North Carolina.
Many of the seats Democrats won Tuesday, in the state legislature and U.S. Congress, represent districts where voters backed Trump by double digits in 2024. But Cooper won in places like Johnston, Harnett, Haywood and Richmond counties — rural areas where more than 60% of voters backed Trump just two years ago — and helped other Democrats across the finish line as well.
“2026 is really unlike any midterm election that we have seen in quite some time,” said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College. “I would caution Democrats, in particular: this year’s performance will not necessarily equate to 2028.”
On North Carolina’s ballot in 2028: the presidency, a U.S. Senate seat, the governor and other Council of State positions, three state Supreme Court seats, as well as every congressional and legislative seat.
Polling this year showed that North Carolinians held a negative view of the economy and blamed Trump, citing his tariffs on foreign goods and his war with Iran. A WRAL/WSOC Poll released last month found that the nation’s economic health was the only issue that a majority of adults agreed on as a top concern.
But consumer costs and economic conditions could change significantly before the 2028 elections.
“Two years is a very long time in politics,” said Sunshine Hillygus, a political scientist at Duke University. “Just because the president’s party loses seats in the midterm election does not tell us what’s going to happen in the next presidential election.”
Republican and Democratic strategists agreed. The 2028 election will be “fundamentally different,” said Dallas Woodhouse, a longtime Republican strategist and former executive director of the state GOP. “Presidential elections are about the future, and two new party nominees will be the focus, not the soon-to-be former president,” Woodhouse told WRAL.
Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, told WRAL that the party plans to continue investing heavily in North Carolina. “North Carolina will be a battleground in the presidential contest as it has in the past, and so we’re going to be spending a lot of time, energy, and money in North Carolina on the presidential race, on the Senate race, and other races on the ballot,” he said.
Next US Senate race
North Carolina U.S. Sen. Ted Budd’s seat will be on the ballot in 2028, and he is expected to seek reelection.
Democrats believe Budd is vulnerable because the first-term Republican has been a supporter of Trump’s agenda for years, dating to his time in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2017 through 2022. In 2021, Trump cited Budd’s longtime support when endorsing the congressman’s run for U.S. Senate.
Morgan Jackson, a strategist for Cooper and other Democrats in North Carolina, told WRAL he believes Budd is the most vulnerable Republican in the U.S. Senate. But Jackson said Democrats can only defeat Budd if they deliver lower prices for Americans over the next two years, when the party has control of Congress.
“Agenda One, if you’re in Congress, is to come up with an affordability agenda,” Jackson said. “Not a 378-page document, but simple fixes that can help the American people and bring immediate relief.”
Democrats need to be laser-focused on repealing tariffs, stopping the Iran war, and addressing rising healthcare premiums, Jackson said.
Budd has already demonstrated that he’s focused on the needs of North Carolinians, said Jonathan Felts, a Budd campaign spokesman. He cited Budd’s clashes with Kristi Noem, Trump’s former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary, over the slow pace of aid for victims of Hurricane Helene. The storm caused $60 billion in damages to western North Carolina when it hit the state in September 2024. To date, the federal government has issued about $11 billion in relief.
In September 2025, Budd told the White House that he planned to block Trump’s DHS nominees unless Noem lifted a policy requiring her to personally sign off on any expenditure over $100,000. Trump fired Noem about six months later, in March.
“Ted’s top consideration with everything he does as a U.S. senator is what’s best for the working families in North Carolina,” Felts said. “He’s going to continue working with that being the top priority and we feel very confident that he’ll be reelected in 2028.”
Woodhouse, the GOP strategist, noted that Republican U.S. Senate candidates have fared better against Democrats in presidential elections than midterm elections. The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate in a presidential election was the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Prior to that, it was the late Democratic U.S. Sen. Sam Ervin in 1968.
The effects of redistricting
North Carolina’s congressional and legislative election maps are expected to pose another obstacle for Democrats in 2028.
Republican legislators, who have controlled the North Carolina General Assembly since 2011, have drawn election maps over the years to favor GOP candidates — resulting in multiple legal challenges. In 2022, court-ordered maps that were drawn by independent redistricting consultants led to a 7-7 split among Republicans and Democrats in North Carolina’s congressional delegation.
The following year, Republican legislators drew new election maps that allowed the GOP to win 10 of the state’s 14 Congressional seats in the 2024 election. Political observers say Democratic wins in some of the state’s congressional and legislative races this year were only possible because of a blue wave that North Carolina hasn’t experienced in decades.
Nationally, the U.S. House popular vote shifted from Republicans in 2024 to Democrats in 2026 by about 15 percentage points — second-biggest midterm swing since World War II, according to Nate Silver, a political data analyst. But many North Carolina Democrats who won Tuesday — or who are leading their elections — can’t afford even a 4 percentage point shift.
- In the state’s 1st Congressional District, preliminary election results show Democratic Rep. Don Davis defeating Republican Laurie Buckhout by about 3 percentage points. Voters in the northeastern North Carolina district supported Trump by 11 percentage points in the 2024 election.
- In the state’s 5th Congressional District, Democrat Chuck Hubbard leads longtime U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx by 99 votes. Trump won the western North Carolina district by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024.
- In the state’s 6th Congressional District, Democrat Cyril Jefferson defeated U.S. Rep. Addison McDowell by about 2.5 percentage points. Trump won the Triad-area district Trump won by 17 percentage points in 2024.
- In the state’s 9th Congressional District, Democrat Richard Ojeda defeated longtime U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson by a little more than 2 percentage points. Trump won the central North Carolina district by 15 percentage points in 2024.
- In the state’s 14th Congressional District, Democrat Lakesha Womack defeated U.S. Rep. Tim Moore — the longtime state House Speaker — by about 2 percentage points. The Gastonia-area district supported Trump by 15 percentage points in 2024.
Democrats who flipped seats in the legislature by similar margins should expect tough reelection paths in 2028, said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University.
“Even the tallest wall can be crested if the storm is big enough,” Cooper said. “The 2026 election was a big electoral storm. I expect the gerrymander, much like the wall, will survive the next storm.”
Jockeying for 2028
Ojeda’s win over Hudson was one of the most surprising results of the night, not just in North Carolina but nationwide.
In an interview just hours after his victory, WRAL asked Ojeda how he will measure success over the next two years in Washington. He said he’ll push for Congress to finally pass the PRO Act, which would extend labor unionizing rights nationwide. Too much of national policy is currently stacked in favor of billionaires and big business interests, he said, and there needs to be a reset in favor of blue collar workers like the coal miners he grew up with in West Virginia before joining the U.S. Army.
But Ojeda said he’ll also put an emphasis on the more mundane issues politicians handle for their constituents. Congressional officials can help people expedite passports, interface with federal agencies like Veterans Affairs or the Social Security Administration, and more.
“When you get the opportunity to pick up a phone and help somebody accomplish something — that they’ve tried for so long to do and they couldn’t get done, but you can get on a phone and you can actually help them accomplish that — it’s a great feeling to have,” he said.
The General Assembly session that starts next year will be the first that Democrats have a majority in either chamber since 2010. That gives Republicans an opportunity to go on the attack against Democratic legislation, something they’ve rarely gotten the chance to do over the past 15 years.
“We expect to win the majority in 2028 and we feel very confident when things are back to normal,” said Luke Stancil, the Republican House caucus executive director.
Approval of constitutional amendments on this year’s ballot — one of which requires photo ID to vote and two of which limit future tax increases — show voters support Republican policies, Stancil said. He attributed Republican losses across North Carolina to “a brand problem” caused by Republicans in Washington: “When you make a promise to the voters, you need to keep it. North Carolina Republicans did that,” Stancil said.
In the state Senate, some see the need for a change. Sen. Jim Burgin, a Harnett County Republican, announced a bid for senate leader on Wednesday — vowing to adapt to the shifting power dynamics at the legislature.
“In a divided government, little will get done without people who can sit across the table and find common ground without abandoning our conservative principles,” Burgin said in a letter to Senate colleagues.
Senate Republicans, who entered Tuesday’s election with 30 seats, led in 26 of the chamber’s 50 districts after preliminary results were tallied. The fate of the chamber will be decided in Robeson, Hoke and Scotland Counties, where Republican Danny Britt on Friday held a 245-vote lead in a Senate district election that could be headed toward a recount.
While the Senate might not change hands, its leadership will. Longtime Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, narrowly lost his Republican primary to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page. In addition to Burgin, Brent Jackson, R-Sampson, is running to replace Berger. People familiar with the Senate leadership replacement efforts have told WRAL that Todd Johnson, R-Union, and Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, are considered possible replacements.
Hise was Berger’s deputy for years. Rather than list his conservative bona fides, Burgin touted his ability to work across the aisle.
“Relationships matter, and they are what I would bring to this role,” Burgin wrote. “I have built working relationships with my Democratic colleagues, with members of the House, and with the governor. Those relationships will help us deliver results and protect the priorities that matter most to our caucus.”
Burgin added: “We have to do things differently in Raleigh.”
Source: www.wral.com
