Basque companies trust that Trump’s defeat will facilitate their business in the US: “Uncertainty will be reduced”

The Gipuzkoa Chamber of Commerce, which represents more than 70,000 companies and self-employed workers in the territory, considers that the decisions of the Republican Administration in recent years have conditioned the activity of Gipuzkoa companies. Despite this, the business community has managed to maintain its presence in the US market and regain sales momentum during this year, after the decline in 2025.

The chamber institution interprets the electoral result as an opportunity to open a new stage. In his opinion, “the counterweight introduced by the change of political color in the US House can translate into decisions with greater consensus, and trade relations will be much easier,” in a geopolitical context that could also offer better conditions for business activity. His assessment is clear: Trump’s defeat could translate into “changes in the right direction.”

The reading of Ategi, the Mondragon Group’s purchasing portal, introduces some nuances, although it shares the possibility of a less unilateral scenario. Its Director of Transportation and Logistics, Mireia Sagardia, believes that the United States could move from a stage of more arbitrary decisions to one marked by greater political negotiation and the presence of institutional counterweights. “This could stop the expansion of new tariff barriers” and facilitate the planning of Basque export companies, although it warns that a “general disappearance of tariffs” cannot be expected.

Another factor that may influence the activity of companies is the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy. Ategi points out that the internal pressure on Trump, as a result of inflation and the economic impact of the war with Iran, “could favor a de-escalation. An eventual normalization of transit through the Strait of Hormuz would reduce geopolitical pressure on oil and could make energy, freight, marine insurance and raw materials cheaper. For the Basque industry, this factor can have an impact even greater than that of the tariffs themselves.

Sagardia also predicts that the new Democratic majority could “stop certain tax cuts or new stimuli promoted by Trump and, at the same time, negotiate greater resources for social programs, infrastructure or strategic investments in exchange for budget agreements, for example in defense.” The result, he maintains, could be a “more selective” spending policy, with “opportunities for certain industrial sectors.”

Exports on the rise

The dimension of the commercial relationship explains the importance of these movements. The Basque Country has 137 companies with a presence in the US, totaling 239 commercial and productive establishments. Of them, 140 are offices, warehouses or commercial establishments and 99 correspond to production facilities. Furthermore, Gipuzkoan exports to the North American country have grown by 8.7% until August, while Basque exports have increased by 8.5%. The recovery contrasts with the end of 2025, when sales in Euskadi fell by 11%, and those in Gipuzkoa fell by 6.4%.

From Salto Wecosystem, its CEO, Marc Gómez, also welcomes the new scenario with optimism. «I think it is good news for the world in general and, above all, for the economy. A window of hope opens,” he says. In his opinion, the change of majority in the House of Representatives can introduce greater plurality and counterpoints in political decisions.

Gómez hopes that this new balance will contribute to regaining stability and predictability. The manager acknowledges that Trump’s decisions have affected areas such as university financing and the granting of visas to foreign students, although he assures that they have not harmed Salto’s investments or growth in the United States. Among its projects, the one at Princeton University stands out, where the company implemented more than 3,200 smart locks in university residences.

A more cautious view comes from Ampo. Its commercial and institutional relations director, Jon Gorrotxategi, considers that the US will continue to be a “strategic market” for the company, which has a solid presence in the country and participates in a context of important energy projects, especially in the field of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company expects that this activity will maintain its “dynamism over the coming years”, although it avoids establishing a direct relationship between the new political scenario and an immediate improvement in business conditions, despite recognizing that political changes “may introduce new variables.”