Energy buyers burned by the Strait of Hormuz are turning to Africa, and the money is following. The African Energy Chamber projects that Africa’s upstream sector will attract ~$40 billion a year through 2030, lifting the continent’s hydrocarbon output to 12.5 MMboe/d. Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Ivory Coast will take the largest shares of that capital, while new projects in Uganda, Kenya and Namibia expand the production base. Major offshore discoveries and a wave of upstream deals are turning Africa into the world’s next natural gas and LNG frontier. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has emerged as a premier frontier for this global diversification strategy, offering large reserves of uncommitted gas entirely outside the Middle Eastern chokepoints. Backed by expanding infrastructure and floating LNG (FLNG) deployment, Fitch has forecast that SSA’s LNG exports will surge by nearly 175% to 98 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2034, up from 35.7 bcm in 2024.
Meanwhile, the continent’s growing appetite for natural gas is expected to play a big role in driving infrastructure development, with Africa’s natural gas demand projected to grow by 60% by 2050. According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy cited via The National, natural gas accounts for only 17% of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa, considerably lower than the global average of 25%, thus leaving room for expansion. A paradigm shift is currently taking place in the continent wherein African nations are increasingly moving beyond simple raw resource extraction, with governments aiming to monetize gas in their domestic markets.
Anchors of Sub-Saharan LNG Growth
After enduring years of delays due to regional insecurity, Mozambique is currently witnessing a resurgence in its energy sector. Mozambique is now home to several world-scale projects in the Rovuma Basin off the coast of Cabo Delgado. First is TotalEnergies’ (NYSE:TTE) $20 billion Mozambique LNG project. Construction at the giant 13.1 MTPA facility resumed in January following the lifting of a four-and-a-half-year force majeure, with the project around 45% complete. Second is Eni’s (NYSE:E) Coral North FLNG project, estimated to cost $7.2 billion. Building on the operational success of Coral South, Eni and its partners launched an offshore drilling campaign for Coral North. Commercial operations are targeted for 2028, bumping Mozambique’s operating floating LNG capacity to 7 MTPA. Finally, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) recently doubled its working interest in Mozambique’s $30 billion Rovuma LNG megaproject to 50%, following a major asset swap agreement with Italy’s Eni. ExxonMobil remains the operator of the onshore liquefaction development as the consortium advances toward a Final Investment Decision (FID) targeted for late 2026.
Related: IEA Warns Global Gas Crunch Could Last Well into 2027
Major natural gas and LNG infrastructure expansion is also happening in Nigeria, with its Decade of Gas initiative serving as the strategic framework to transition the nation into a gas-powered economy. To reverse years of stagnant upstream investment, the federal government has implemented competitive fiscal frameworks, particularly targeting Non-Associated Gas (NAG) developments in onshore and shallow offshore assets, to scale domestic supply. Nigeria LNG’s Train 7 expansion is set to lift the company’s capacity to 30 MTPA from 2027. Last year, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and its upstream partners signed 20-year Gas Supply Agreements (GSAs), with options for extension, to supply 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d) of feedgas to Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG).
Finally, Africa’s frontier basins are undergoing a massive deepwater boom, shifting rapidly from exploratory zones into operational hubs that are reshaping global energy markets. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project, shared by Senegal and Mauritania, has achieved commercial operations after shipping its first LNG cargo in April 2025. Phase one features a capacity of 2.5 million tons per annum (mtpa), with phase two aiming to scale up to 5 mtpa. The Senegalese government is looking to capitalize on this momentum, and is currently courting international investors with 109 exploration blocks.
In Namibia’s Orange Basin, TotalEnergies recently executed a major asset swap with Portugal’s Galp Energia (OTCPK:GLPEF), taking over operatorship of the massive Mopane discovery while consolidating its footprint alongside the Venus field. For the Venus project in PEL 56, TotalEnergies is targeting a development based on a floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, with a possible FID in 2026 that hinges on fiscal negotiations with the government. Appraisal drilling for Mopane is set to begin with a three-well campaign as early as the second half of 2026, targeting an FID in 2028.
Finally, Tanzania has largely completed negotiations on the commercial structure, taxation and revenue sharing for its massive $42 billion LNG project in Lindi, backed by a consortium including Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and ExxonMobil, though a Host Government Agreement and parliamentary approval remain outstanding. A natural gas discovery in the Mnazi Bay area, Tanzania’s first in a decade, unveiled an estimated 223 billion cubic feet of gas. More than 80% of Mnazi Bay’s gas already goes to power generation at state utility TANESCO’s plants.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
Source: oilprice.com
