Credo Technology Is Down 26% in a Year. Is It Time to Sell, or Load Up?

Key Takeaways

• Crede Technology (CRDO) stock has fallen approximately 26% over the past year, despite fiscal 2026 revenue more than tripling to $1.3 billion.

• MaxLinear (MXL) is targeting 20% to 30% of the next-generation 1.6T active electrical cable market, challenging Credo’s leadership.

• Broadcom (AVGO) could compete with Credo in next-generation cable connectivity, while Marvell Technology (MRVL) is expanding its optical networking business through its proposed acquisition of Lumentum.

• Credo’s earnings growth and lower historical valuation support a cautiously bullish outlook, although customer concentration and competition remain significant risks.

Crede Technology (CRDO) closed at approximately $121 on November 6, down 26% over the past year and 61% from its June high near $309, according to historical stock-price data.

Yet its underlying business continues expanding rapidly. Fiscal 2026 revenue more than tripled to $1.3 billion, while first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue increased 115% to $479 million.

The concern is whether Credo can defend its leadership in active electrical cables (AECs) as competing technologies emerge.

What Happened?

Credo’s sell-off accelerated following its September 1 earnings announcement, despite stronger-than-expected results.

According to its first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings releaserevenue reached $479 million, up 115% year over year, while adjusted EPS of $1.20 exceeded the $1.17 consensus estimate.

Management also projected second-quarter revenue between $525 million and $535 million, above the $516.5 million analysts expected.

However, Credo maintained its fiscal 2027 optical revenue outlook above $600 million rather than raising it, disappointing investors anticipating stronger guidance.

CEO Bill Brennan explained the opportunity during the company’s June earnings call:

“In total, we are expecting more than $600 million of revenue contribution.”

Despite the earnings beat, shares fell approximately 20% the following day. Concerns about AI infrastructure spending and intensifying competition added further pressure.

During MaxLinear’s October 22 earnings callCEO Kishore Seendripu estimated Credo’s AEC market share at 93% to 99%. MaxLinear aims to capture 20% to 30% of the next-generation 1.6T market over the next several years.

MaxLinear plans to supply chips to cable manufacturers rather than sell complete cables, creating a different competitive approach to the next-generation AEC market.

The threat matters because AEC products accounted for more than 90% of Credo’s first-quarter year-over-year revenue increase.