The fantasy football playoffs will be here before gamers know it. In most leagues, the fantasy football playoffs run from Week 15 through Week 17. Teams projected for a first-round bye shouldn’t worry too much about Week 15. Obviously, things can change, and a losing streak could make Week 15 important. Some leagues also don’t have byes.
It’s not too early to start thinking about the fantasy football playoffs. Teams that have raced out to an 8-0, 7-1 or 6-2 record should maximize their chances of winning the championship by all means necessary. Consolidating depth into a supremely talented starting lineup is one consideration.
However, looking ahead at the fantasy playoff schedule and holding, trading for or scooping up players to stash with favorable fantasy playoff schedules can give forward-thinking gamers an edge over their week-to-week focused competitors. A tight end in a high-scoring offense and a young quarterback coming out of his bye stand out as compelling hold, trade or stash targets.
Fantasy Football Playoff Look-Ahead Stash and Hold
Stash: JJ McCarthy (QB – NYG) | Rostered in ~22% of Leagues
J.J. McCarthy was the QB12 in Week 6, scoring 17.3 fantasy points. As a reminder, he didn’t enter that game until Jameis Winston was benched in the fourth quarter. He didn’t throw any touchdowns, and Winston poached a tush-push touchdown in Week 7. Thus, McCarthy was only the QB23 as Big Blue’s starter against the Texans in Houston in Week 7.
The quiet fantasy showing hides a stellar real-life performance, and McCarthy has played well this season. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 40 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this year, McCarthy has the following numbers (rankings in parentheses):
- 63.3% completion percentage (T-23rd)
- 5.9% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) (9th)
- 11.33-yard average depth of target (aDOT) (1st)
- 10.10 yards per pass attempt (1st)
- 8.34 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) (4th)
- 51.0% success rate (17th)
- 14.3% hero-throw rate (1st)
- 2.0% turnover-worthy-throw rate (10th)
- 2.44 seconds time to throw (7th)
- 0.219 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (9th)
McCarthy challenges defenses deep and gets the ball out quickly. He also has some mobility. McCarthy has a 28-yard scramble this season. In his career, McCarthy has averaged 16.9 rushing yards per game, 6.67 yards per carry and scored four rushing touchdowns on non-kneel-downs in 13 games. He’s reached at least 20 rushing yards in six career games. McCarthy has a legitimate rushing profile.
It remains to be seen if he can stay hot, but coming off the bye, McCarthy had an extra week to learn the playbook and build more chemistry with his teammates.
McCarthy could emerge as a low-end QB1 and play himself out of streamer territory, so it makes sense to add him to benches on quarterback-needy rosters now. If he plays well this week as a favorite against an Eagles team that’s playing out the string, he’ll be a popular waiver wire addition next week. Even if McCarthy only plays well enough to remain streaming-caliber, his fantasy playoff schedule is dreamy.
A home tilt against the Browns in Week 15 isn’t ideal. Yet he has road games against the Lions (indoors) and the Cowboys (retractable roof) in Week 16 and Week 17, respectively. Playing indoors is gravy, but the matchups are the primary reason to be excited. The Lions rank 32nd in fantasy defense against quarterbacks (25.7 fantasy points per game), and the Cowboys rank 27th (20.5 fantasy points per game). Gamers who are weak at quarterback or streaming the position should scoop and stash McCarthy.
Hold: Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | Rostered in ~86% of Leagues
Among tight ends who’ve played at least two games, Dalton Kincaid is the TE9 in half-PPR scoring (9.4 points per game). It hasn’t been smooth sailing, though.
Kincaid scored only 2.8 half-PPR points in Week 3, 1.2 in Week 4 and 3.2 in Week 5. Still, among 38 tight ends with at least 100 routes this season, Kincaid has recorded the following stats (rankings in parentheses):
- 68.0% snap share (18th)
- 61.6% route participation rate (T-20th)
- 17.1% target share (13th)
- 0.24 targets per route run (TPRR) (T-8th)
- 21.4% first-read rate (7th)
- 20.1% air yard share (6th)
- 9.83-yard aDOT (4th)
- 3.9 receptions per game (16th)
- 57.3 receiving yards per game (5th)
- 2.75 yards per route run (YPRR) (1st)
- 11.46 yards per target (1st)
- 14.85 yards per reception (1st)
- 0.103 first downs per route run (1D/RR)(8th)
- 0.29 touchdowns per game (T-19th)
- 0.45 half-PPR points per route run (5th)
Kincaid is once again elite on a per-route basis, and his route participation is adequate but could be higher. He could also benefit from DJ Moore‘s return. Kincaid’s target share is 16.3% on 102 snaps with Moore and 20.2% on 188 snaps without Moore, but he has 0.24 TPRR in both splits and his YPRR surges from 2.17 without Moore to 3.53 with him.
Kincaid’s playoff schedule is the nail in the coffin for holding him. The Bills host the Bears in Week 15, then play the Broncos on the road in Week 16 and the Dolphins in Week 17. Chicago ranks 12th in half-PPR fantasy defense against tight ends (9.8 half-PPR points per game), Denver ranks 26th (13.6 half-PPR points per game) and Miami ranks 30th (15.8 half-PPR points per game). Gamers without Kincaid should also consider acquiring him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
Source: www.fantasypros.com




