Over $2.1 billion energy project at risk as NATO allies clash over Mediterranean waters, drawing in US and Africa’s most powerful military

At stake is the €1.9 billion ($2.1 billion) Great Sea Interconnector, an EU-backed electricity project agreed by Greece, Cyprus and Israel in 2021, which secured €657 million in funding in 2022 but has faced delays amid Turkey’s objections to activities along the proposed undersea cable route.

The tensions stem from competing maritime agreements, beginning with the Turkey-Libya deal signed in 2019, which faced years of opposition from Libya’s eastern parliament before its recent approval.

Meanwhile, Greece and Egypt signed a separate maritime boundary agreement in August 2020, partially defining their exclusive economic zones in the Eastern Mediterranean, which Athens said expanded its maritime rights by 38,000 square kilometres.

Turkey and Libya’s latest U-turn has, however, unsettled the region, drawing the United States, the European Union and other NATO allies into the dispute, alongside Egypt, a country Ankara has been trying to mend diplomatic ties with.

The dispute is particularly sensitive given the longstanding tensions between Turkey and Greece, whose competing maritime claims have repeatedly strained relations despite their shared NATO membership.

Rather than risk further straining its improving relationship with Cairo, Ankara has proposed a separate maritime deal that it says could grant Egypt more than 15,000 square kilometres of additional jurisdiction compared with a potential further agreement with Greece.

“It is assessed that if Egypt signs such an agreement with our country, it would gain more than 15,000 square kilometers (5,792 square miles) of additional maritime jurisdiction compared to a potential agreement it could conclude with Greece,” Turkey’s Defence Ministry said.

Egypt has nevertheless rejected negotiations over the proposal, reaffirming its existing maritime partnership with Greece.

“The Turks are trying to justify to us the agreement they made with the Libyans, but in no way are we discussing a Turkish-Egyptian agreement. We condemn the Turkish-Libyan memorandum,” Egypt’s ambassador to Greece, Murad Murad, told Greek newspaper Kyriakatiki Apogevmatini.

Meanwhile, Libya, long sidelined in international diplomacy amid years of political instability, has returned to the regional spotlight following its approval of the agreement.

Its eastern parliament, aligned with military commander Khalifa Haftar, had previously opposed the deal signed between Turkey and the rival Tripoli-based government but reversed its position amid improving relations with Ankara.

“Some countries may be upset by this agreement, but what matters to us is our national interest,” Libyan lawmaker Tarek al-Jeroushi told Reuters.

But Greece, a fellow NATO member situated in southeastern Europe, remains firmly opposed to the agreement and has challenged it at the United Nations.

“It entirely disregards the presence of numerous Greek islands, including Crete and the Dodecanese islands, and their entitlements to generate maritime zones beyond the territorial sea,” Greek ambassador Aglaia Balta said.

Cyprus, an island nation with longstanding territorial and political disputes with Turkey, has also joined Egypt, Greece and other regional partners in rejecting Ankara’s maritime claims.

The United States, the world’s strongest military power, has also been drawn into the dispute, with the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC), a Greek-American advocacy group, urging Secretary of State Marco Rubio to reject the Turkish-Libyan agreement and reaffirm Greece’s maritime rights.

Washington’s initial response had raised concerns that its position could be interpreted as tacit acceptance of Ankara’s claims, prompting calls for a clearer stance.

“The announcement of the ratification of the Turkish-Libyan delimitation memorandum of understanding has raised tensions in the region and is unhelpful and provocative — and our position on this matter has not changed,” a US State Department spokesperson subsequently said.

Despite its criticism, Washington urged Greece and Turkey, both NATO allies, to resolve their differences through good-faith negotiations.

The European Union, which Turkey has long sought to join, has similarly condemned the agreement, with France among the member states supporting the bloc’s position.

“This agreement infringes upon the sovereign rights of third states, it does not comply with the Law of the Sea, and is null and void,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa declared.

“We reaffirm our solidarity with Greece and Cyprus,” the leaders added.

If left unresolved, the dispute could further complicate seabed surveys, delay electricity infrastructure projects and increase investment costs, with wider implications for Mediterranean energy development and economic cooperation between Africa and Europe.