Trump’s midterm rout gives Ramaphosa hope for US reset days after South Africa loses duty-free access to $24.1 billion trade partner

Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in a sweeping rejection of Trump’s Republican Party, potentially limiting the president’s ability to advance parts of his domestic agenda during the remaining two years of his term.

Ramaphosa said the outcome could also alter the international political environment after a period of worsening relations between Pretoria and Washington.

“We have seen that the Democrats have taken control of the Senate and of the House, and the people of America have spoken. I do think that this is going to introduce a new era in world relations,” Ramaphosa told journalists after casting his ballot in South Africa’s municipal elections.

According to Reuters⁠, Ramaphosa said South Africa hoped the new balance of power in Washington would allow the two countries to find common ground on geopolitics, trade and investment.

“We’re hoping that, on a bilateral basis, there will be a coming together of minds, where we will find a proper path forward on geopolitics as well as on trade matters and investment matters,” he said.

Ramaphosa’s comments came two days after the Trump administration notified Congress and the South African government that it intended to terminate South Africa’s eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA.

The removal is scheduled to take effect on 1 January 2027.

AGOA gives eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products, in addition to goods covered by the American Generalised System of Preferences.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration’s review found that South Africa was engaging in practices inconsistent with AGOA’s eligibility requirements.

The US government cited barriers to American trade and investment, corruption and what it described as threats to US national security and foreign-policy interests. Its statement did not identify specific transactions or policies responsible for the decision.

Ramaphosa acknowledged that losing the trade preferences was a setback.

“Exclusion from AGOA is indeed a negative for us,” he said. “Whilst we are sad that we’ve been removed from AGOA, our trade relations with the United States continue.”

He said Pretoria would pursue a bilateral trade agreement with Washington while accelerating efforts to secure alternative export markets.

“Diversification has now become the order of the day,” Ramaphosa said.

The United States is South Africa’s third-largest trading partner after China and the European Union.

Bilateral trade was worth approximately $24.1 billion, or R397 billion at an exchange rate of R16.46 to the dollar, last year. That compares with $55.6 billion in trade between South Africa and China.

South African government data cited by Bloomberg shows that exports entering the US through AGOA account for about 10% of the country’s total shipments to the American market.

This means South Africa’s exclusion would not end bilateral trade. However, products previously covered by the programme could face higher tariffs, making them less competitive against goods from countries that retain preferential access.

The most exposed industries include automotive manufacturing, agriculture, wine and citrus production. Exporters have warned that losing duty-free treatment could threaten investments and jobs built around access to the American market.

More than 500 US companies have operations in South Africa, while around 30,000 American citizens reside in the country.

The rand responded positively to the Democratic victory, gaining about 1% to R16.46 against the dollar on Wednesday and becoming one of the strongest-performing currencies monitored by Bloomberg that day.

Democratic control of Congress gives the party more authority over legislation, committee hearings and investigations into the Trump administration.

It could produce greater scrutiny of the White House’s trade and foreign-policy decisions, including its approach to South Africa.

However, the midterm result does not automatically restore South Africa’s AGOA benefits.

Trump remains president, and the executive branch retains substantial authority over foreign policy, diplomatic negotiations and the annual assessment of countries’ eligibility for AGOA.

Any reset will therefore require negotiations between Pretoria and the Trump administration, regardless of the Democratic victory in Congress.

Relations have deteriorated since Trump returned to office. His administration has frozen assistance, criticised South Africa’s Black economic-empowerment and land policies and accused the government of failing to protect white Afrikaners.

South Africa rejects allegations that white citizens face organised racial persecution and says the claims misrepresent the country’s crime and land-reform challenges.

The two governments have also disagreed over international conflicts and South Africa’s relationships with countries including China and Russia.

Ramaphosa’s reaction to the US election suggests Pretoria sees the Democratic victory as political leverage rather than an immediate solution.

The new congressional balance may give South Africa more sympathetic interlocutors in Washington. But reversing the AGOA decision or negotiating a replacement trade agreement will still depend on whether Pretoria and the Trump administration can resolve their underlying disputes.