There’s a scene in the NBC show “30 Rock,” in which Republican Jack Donaghy asks Dennis Duffy, “What are your politics?” Duffy replies, unironically, “Social conservative, fiscal liberal.”
That was the vibe Washington state was giving on election night, as the first batch of votes were counted. Washingtonians were enthusiastic about taxing the rich — households bringing in more than $1 million per year — rejecting a repeal of the millionaires tax by more than 16 points.
That’s a sea change for the state, where there’s never really been an income tax and voters have rejected corporate and income taxes 10 times in the last century.
But with the same pen, many also voted to prevent trans girls from playing girls’ sports. That initiative, 638, was ahead with roughly 57% percent of the vote on Tuesday night.
That could change, of course — Seattle leftists tend to procrastinate and vote at the last minute, meaning their votes are counted last. Socialist Mayor Katie Wilson only had 46% of the vote on election night, but won a week later by about 2,000 votes. But that was a race in Seattle, and 57% is a big number to come back from statewide.
It’s worth noting, however, that as the ban on trans girls in sports appeared to be pulling ahead, Seattle elected its first openly trans state lawmaker to the legislature. Jaelynn Scott, a Democratic socialist, will represent Seattle’s 37th district, encompassing Central and South Seattle neighborhoods, in the state House.
Elsewhere Democrats were doing well: Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez led her Republican challenger by more than 10 points, and even in typically-red Eastern Washington, Spokane Republican Michael Baumgartner was in a tight race with Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy.
That race and many others will be decided in the coming days.
But here are a few things that are becoming clear on election night in Washington.
An income tax, thanks to Brian Heywood?
In 1932, Washingtonians approved an income tax 70 to 30. But after it was struck down in court the next year, attempt after attempt to pass income or corporate taxes failed from the 1930s to now — 10 attempts in total.
For years, an income tax was viewed as a third rail in state politics: even Republicans who wanted to balance the state’s tax code, like Gov. Dan Evans, failed.
Ironically, it may have finally come about thanks to conservative millionaire hedge fund manager Brian Heywood. His challenge to the capital gains tax in 2024 lost by so much, some argue it made Democrats confident enough to pass the millionaires tax earlier this year.
Democrats might’ve focused on the wrong fight
Even with a blue wave nationwide, local Democrats didn’t defend against the trans initiative as fiercely as they did against the millionaires tax repeal.
Stephen Reed, the spokesperson for state Democrats, told KUOW that the party didn’t focus as heavily on the sports initiative as it has on other ballot measures this year. Reed said the fight over the millionaires tax is “sucking up a lot of the oxygen in the room.”
No Hate in Washington State, the campaign to stop I-638 and Initiative 1, the so-called “parents’ rights initiative,” raised a little more than Let’s Go Washington, the campaign to pass those two initiatives and the millionaires tax repeal.
But it didn’t raise even half as much as the “No on 645” campaign to save the millionaires tax, which got $13 million, according to the Public Disclosure Commission.
While the millionaires tax reportedly polled well, both liberal and conservative polling showed at least some Democrats supported a ban on trans girls playing girls’ sports. Some told KUOW that to them it was an issue of women’s rights, and the hard-earned rights within Title IX.
But some of that polling also suggested that voters who learned the initiative could require girls to get genital exams or other types of sex verification became less supportive.
In the final weeks of the campaign, the airwaves seemed far more dominated by ads about the millionaires tax than warnings about genital exams for female athletes.
So if the trans initiative passes and the income tax repeal fails, a question might be: Why did Democrats spend so much on an easy fight, while spending far less on a potentially-winnable one?
Democrats who voted against millionaires tax are losing in rich and poor districts
A pair of state House Democrats who broke with their party and voted against an income tax on high earners earlier this year were trailing challengers from within their own party on election night.
One comes from a district where an estimated 2,300 people will pay the millionaires tax. The other comes from a district where so few will pay it, the Department of Revenue wouldn’t disclose the number for privacy reasons.
On the wealthy Eastside of King County, State Rep. Amy Walen, of Kirkland, was down by 1,051 votes against Jessica Forsythe, a Redmond city councilmember. Walen currently represents the 48th Legislative District, one of the state’s wealthiest.
South of Tacoma, incumbent State Rep. Melanie Morgan, of Parkland, lagged by 741 votes behind Krista Perez, who says she jumped into the race for the 29th district because of Morgan’s vote on the income tax.
Source: www.kuow.org
