6 things to watch for on election night : NPR

It can be hard to know what to focus on in midterm elections. There are so many races, from elections for governor and senator to the House and state legislatures. For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to watch:

1. The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote

There are two states, Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour. And then there’s Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But most of the state is on Eastern time. So lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, even if statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won’t be called at the earliest until 8 p.m. ET.

Some races to watch for early indicators of what might come later in the evening — Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Kentucky’s 6th and Florida’s 22nd and 27th. Indiana’s 5th and Kentucky’s 6th are seats held by Republicans that are more competitive now than at the beginning of the cycle. If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.

Florida’s 22nd is held by a Democrat but redrawn to tip in Republicans’ favor. Trump won Florida’s 27th by double-digits so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup votes.

2. Do Republicans get 46% with independents?

Independents are a key swing group, but they are also a lower-propensity voting group in midterms.

It used to be that Republicans had to win a bigger share of independents before the Trump era. Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. But there’s been a political realignment in this country with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting toward Democrats.

So in the decade since Trump has been on the political scene, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven’t, they’ve lost.